Bill Simmons Welcomes Tom Pelissero to The Ringer

8/19 TAKES — TOM PELISSERO / SAM KOPPELMAN (APPROX. TIME)
10 min \| Tom Pelissero Miami’s teardown will take several years, with 2028 as the more realistic target for contention. The Dolphins are building “the Green Bay way” without overcommitting to Malik Willis and should be in the running for the No. 1 pick in the meantime.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
11 min \| Tom Pelissero Neither Deshaun Watson nor Shedeur Sanders will be Cleveland’s Week 1 quarterback in 2027; Pelissero expects the eventual answer to be someone currently playing in college, unless the Browns acquire a veteran by trade.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
21 min \| Tom Pelissero Minnesota will not dump J.J. McCarthy for a token late-round pick. Unless another team offers meaningful value, the Vikings have more incentive to retain him and continue his development.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
24 min \| Tom Pelissero Kyler Murray will remain roughly a .500 quarterback who produces statistics but struggles against good defenses because he cannot consistently attack the middle of the field and Pelissero does not trust his decision-making. ⚠️ Simmons reaches the same bottom line, saying he does not see the Minnesota career resurgence working.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
27 min \| Tom Pelissero Minnesota should find a way to exceed its 8.5-win total as long as its quarterback room avoids another catastrophe; Kevin O’Connell’s teams have consistently won when they receive merely functional quarterback play.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
28 min \| Bill Simmons Tua Tagovailoa’s viable NFL career is effectively over: Simmons says he looks terrified of being hit and should no longer be starting—or perhaps even playing—in the league.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
29 min \| Tom Pelissero Neither Michael Penix Jr. nor Tua Tagovailoa will be Atlanta’s quarterback in 2027 as the Falcons work through Penix’s recovery and evaluate their short-term options.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
31 min \| Tom Pelissero Arizona will give rookie Carson Beck some starts this season because the Cardinals need to determine whether they found a cheap long-term quarterback before using another high draft pick at the position.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
32 min \| Bill Simmons + Tom Pelissero Aaron Rodgers will not be Pittsburgh’s quarterback next season.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
33 min \| Tom Pelissero Pittsburgh will remain competent enough to avoid a top-five draft pick and will field a top-10 offense under Mike McCarthy, whose offenses have historically finished near the top of the league. Simmons agrees that Pittsburgh’s offense will outperform expectations, although he is less bullish about Rodgers.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
43 min \| Bill Simmons + Tom Pelissero Aaron Donald will still be effective if he returns, but he will play a strategically limited role focused on third downs, two-minute situations and late-game pass-rush packages rather than resembling his former full-time self.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
50 min \| Bill Simmons Houston can win 12 or 13 games—and potentially reach the Super Bowl—if C.J. Stroud provides even C-plus quarterback play, because the Texans have upgraded the offense around an already excellent defense.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
55 min \| Tom Pelissero The NFL’s next wave of elite quarterback extensions will push the market beyond $60 million and into the $70-million-per-year range.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
58 min \| Tom Pelissero Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s new offense will experience some early-season bumps as first-time coordinator Declan Doyle asks Jackson to play a more structured, rhythm-based style instead of trying to create a spectacular play on every snap.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
59 min \| Bill Simmons Baltimore will win most of its first six games, but the early-season storyline will be frustration that its remodeled offense does not look as good as the Ravens’ record.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 10 min \| Tom Pelissero Dallas will be good offensively; whether the Cowboys become a serious contender will depend on how quickly their heavily reworked defense comes together under Christian Parker.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 12 min \| Tom Pelissero The NFC North will be the NFL’s best division from top to bottom; Pelissero says his research has made that conclusion increasingly clear, with no other complete four-team division particularly close.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 18 min \| Tom Pelissero Washington could be a surprise team and “make noise” because it has gotten younger, replenished the receiving corps and plays in a division without an obvious dominant team—provided Jayden Daniels and his supporting cast remain healthy.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 40 min \| Sam Koppelman Sports-franchise values will continue rising because the enormous wealth being created around AI and technology will produce new buyers seeking scarce cultural assets that can persist through an AI-dominated future.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 41 min \| Bill Simmons Josh Kushner’s group will still need to raise roughly another $8 billion to complete the Lakers purchase, and Simmons expects much of that outside investment to come from the Middle East.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 43 min \| Sam Koppelman Mark Walter’s financial problems will expose the first cracks in the leveraged financing of sports franchises, and similar problems will subsequently surface across multiple leagues.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 46 min \| Bill Simmons The Buss family will spend the next five years suing one another over the Lakers sale and control of the family trust.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 48 min \| Sam Koppelman Mark Walter faces genuine criminal exposure and could plead guilty, but Koppelman ultimately expects the administration to work out some form of negotiated resolution rather than put another billionaire in prison.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 48 min \| Bill Simmons Mark Walter’s entire sports portfolio is potentially for sale, including the Dodgers and other team stakes, and the Dodgers’ extraordinary spending will help produce an MLB lockout next year.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 50 min \| Bill Simmons + Sam Koppelman The Clippers–NBA dispute will end with the parties suing one another rather than accepting a straightforward league resolution.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 52 min \| Sam Koppelman Steve Ballmer will escape the Kawhi Leonard investigation with some punishment but remain Clippers owner, while the NBA makes Uncle Dennis the principal fall guy and possibly sanctions Kawhi.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
1 hr 56 min \| Sam Koppelman The Mark Walter investigation will produce concrete evidence from the phones and computers already seized, unlike the Clippers inquiry, where investigators may never find a comparable internal smoking gun.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD
2 hr 4 min \| Sam Koppelman The Lakers will be in solid hands under Josh Kushner and Bob Iger; Iger’s experience managing powerful entertainment personalities should make him particularly effective at handling Luka Dončić and the organization’s surrounding drama.	CONVICTION 🔥🔥🔥🔥 GRADE TBD

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The Podbudsment

A pretty solid debut for Pelissero in his new role as Ringer/Netflix NFL Insider. The chemistry between he and Simmons evolved from a stilted question-and-answer feel early on to a more familiar free exchange in the final 45 minutes.

I suppose ESPN had hit its limit on "Insiders" imported from NFL Network, but letting go of Pelissero was a shock to me. He's got a little Craig Kilborn in him - a smug wiseass who could draw out a "Page 2" version of Simmons that doesn't hold back. Good waivers acquisition.

The Mark Walter franchise ownership saga is making for some fascinating finance and sport talk, and Sam Koppelman provides a great summation of how Guggenheim got here. Ignoring the disclosure issues for a second, is the stock market - the one we're all convinced is an AI bubble - a safer home for insurance assets than sports franchises whose values never retreat and, increasingly, jump at a dizzying rate? Above my pay grade.

Simmons Welcomes Tom Pelissero to The Ringer

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